Rising Temperatures Projected to Increase Cardiovascular Deaths, Especially Among Older and Black Adults

Rising Temperatures Projected to Increase Cardiovascular Deaths, Especially Among Older and Black Adults 

A study funded by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) predicts a rise in cardiovascular-related deaths due to extreme heat in the United States between 2036 and 2065. The study, published in Circulation, highlights that adults aged 65 and older and Black adults will likely be disproportionately affected by this alarming trend.

While extreme heat currently contributes to less than 1% of cardiovascular-related deaths, the research suggests this will change due to a projected increase in days with temperatures feeling at least 90 degrees. Vulnerable populations, such as older adults and Black individuals, are at a higher risk due to underlying medical conditions and socioeconomic barriers, including a lack of access to air conditioning and living in areas known as "heat islands."

Dr. Sameed A. Khatana, one of the study's authors and a cardiologist at the University of Pennsylvania, emphasizes that the health burdens of extreme heat are expected to grow in the coming decades. This situation also raises concerns about health equity and the potential exacerbation of existing health disparities.

The study's predictions are based on an evaluation of county-level data from the contiguous 48 states between 2008 and 2019. Researchers linked extreme temperatures during the summer to an average of 1,651 annual cardiovascular deaths. They forecast that by 2036–2065, there will be approximately 71 to 80 days each summer with temperatures exceeding 90 degrees. These changes could result in a 2.6-fold increase in annual heat-related cardiovascular deaths for the general population, reaching 4,320, or potentially 5,491 if greenhouse gas emissions rise significantly.

For older adults and Black adults, the projections are more severe. Deaths among those aged 65 and older could nearly triple, increasing from 1,340 to 3,842 or 4,894. In the case of Black adults, deaths may more than triple, rising from 325 to 1,512 or 2,063.

The study considered factors like age, underlying health conditions, and geographical location when comparing current and future populations. While most people can adapt to extreme heat through mechanisms like perspiration, individuals with underlying health conditions, such as diabetes and heart disease, face higher risks of cardiovascular events.

The study's findings emphasize the importance of taking extra precautions in extreme heat, particularly for those with underlying health risks. Cooling strategies, including tree planting for shade, creating cooling centers with air conditioning, and using heat-reflective materials for infrastructure, are some of the measures cities are employing. However, further research is needed to assess their impact on public health.

In addition to its implications for the U.S., the study underscores the potential impact of extreme heat on global health, particularly in regions with warmer climates and significant health disparities.

The research received partial support from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI). To learn more about the NIH Climate Change and Health Initiative, visit https://www.nih.gov/climateandhealth.

About the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI):

NHLBI leads global research on heart, lung, blood diseases, and sleep disorders, advancing scientific knowledge, improving public health, and saving lives. For more information, visit https://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/.

About the National Institutes of Health (NIH):

NIH, the primary federal agency for medical research, comprises 27 Institutes and Centers and is part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. NIH conducts and supports research in various medical fields, investigates the causes, treatments, and cures for common and rare diseases, and promotes public health. For more information about NIH and its programs, visit www.nih.gov.