The Impact of Regional Powers on Israel's Actions in Gaza

 The Impact of Regional Powers on Israel's Actions in Gaza

Israel's ongoing ground operation in the Gaza Strip, as referred to by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as "the second phase," prompts various theories about regional actors' potential actions. However, a more accurate perspective might focus on the concerns of these nations.

The recent ground action in Gaza, spanning three days, represents a step up from previous quick incursions, akin to a reconnaissance-in-force operation. It aims to gather vital intelligence about enemy positions, strengths, tactics, and operational readiness to adapt battle plans accordingly.

Nonetheless, Israel's ground advance appears cautious, falling short of the grand-scale invasion touted by ministers and generals. While some pundits may speculate that this indicates a lack of weapon reserves, Israel continues relentless aerial bombings and long-distance shelling of Gaza, causing indiscriminate casualties.

The casualty ratio between Palestinian civilians and Hamas fighters is likely substantial, emphasizing the severity of the conflict.

Israel's measured approach may serve to facilitate diplomatic efforts, secret talks, and clandestine deals. Neighboring countries, including Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria, are cautious not to escalate the conflict, with Qatar leading diplomatic initiatives for captive release and de-escalation.

The positions of two regional powers, Turkey and Iran, present unique dynamics. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has strongly criticized Israel, but his criticism is primarily political. Iran, on the other hand, has a more complex stance.

Iran, a sworn enemy of Israel, supports various armed groups in the region, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and proxies in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. The question arises whether Iran will directly engage in the war over Gaza.

An analysis suggests that Iran would likely lose more than gain by entering a major war with Israel. Two potential methods involve overland or ballistic approaches, both fraught with challenges. An overland route through Iraq and Syria would face opposition from the United States and the Syrian government, and it is militarily implausible. Ballistic missile attacks, while formidable, face the robust defense systems of Israel and the U.S.

Given these factors, it is unlikely that any state actor will join the conflict in Gaza, unless there is a significant escalation or a move for the total expulsion of Palestinians from the Strip.

The current geographically limited conflict is expected to remain as such, thanks to diplomatic efforts by countries and intermediaries involved. The U.S. has deployed forces in the region to deter rogue actions by non-state armed groups like Hezbollah. The priority is to explore avenues for de-escalation and potential negotiations for the release of hostages.