Trump Takes the Witness Stand as New Polls Indicate His Lead Over Biden in Crucial Swing States
Trump Takes the Witness Stand as New Polls Indicate His Lead Over Biden in Crucial Swing States
Trump / Biden
A year ahead of the 2024 Election Day, former President Donald Trump is set to testify in a civil fraud trial while facing over 90 criminal charges, raising the possibility of a convicted felon leading the Republican ticket next November.
However, it is President Joe Biden's political fortunes that are on the decline.
In another unusual turn of events in the 2024 campaign season, characterized more by court hearings than early voting states visits, Trump is expected to take the witness stand in New York on Monday. This is hardly a typical post-presidential activity, but Trump, after all, was the most unconventional president.
Meanwhile, Biden is grappling with harsh new poll results that show him trailing GOP front-runner Trump in multiple crucial swing states. These numbers are likely to induce panic among Democrats and revive doubts among Americans about the soon-to-be 81-year-old president's ability to serve a full second term. If the New York Times/Siena College survey's findings hold in 2024, it could signal an electoral path to victory for Trump. This could result in an increasingly authoritarian Trump, who promises a second term of "retribution," making a White House comeback despite his role in sparking a Capitol insurrection with false claims of electoral fraud in 2020.
Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut expressed his concerns about these polls, emphasizing that recent presidential races have been tightly contested. He acknowledges that no one should expect a landslide victory and that it will require a significant amount of effort, concentration, and resources.
Despite the concurrent challenges facing both Trump and Biden, neither has faced a significant challenge from within their parties as they seek the nomination.
Biden's position is weakening as he grapples with ongoing global crises, such as the conflict in the Middle East, a declining approval rating for his handling of the economy, and cracks within the multiracial coalition that initially elected him. This situation reflects a nation that remains divided and disheartened, yearning for the elusive normality promised by the president three years ago after the pandemic and the tumultuous Trump administration.
These polls are likely to reignite the debate over whether Biden should run again, although some Democrats argue that the time to rally around a different candidate may have passed.
David Axelrod, a former senior strategist for President Barack Obama and a CNN senior political analyst, highlighted that it is very late to change candidates. However, the recent polls may sow doubts within the party.
Trump's strength in the New York Times polls and other surveys could trigger anxiety globally as the prospect of a second Trump term could potentially reshape the post-World War II Western alliance system and impact Ukraine's relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
It's important to note that polls this far out from an election are not always reliable predictors, and many events that will influence the 2024 race are yet to occur.
Biden's supporters argue that the president's critics and media narratives that focus on his low poll numbers miss the key point that will define the 2024 election. They believe that when the choice becomes clear between Biden and Trump, the electorate will ultimately side with a president whose warnings in the midterms about the potential threats to U.S. democracy were more successful than pundits anticipated. Additionally, the state of the economy, which is fundamentally strong in terms of jobs and growth, could play in Biden's favor in the next 12 months, especially as attention turns to high prices and interest rates.
The influence of third-party candidates on the election and the impact of a tumultuous House GOP on voter sentiment remain unknown factors.
While Trump's devoted followers may believe that his legal challenges are politically motivated, the prospect of an ex-president and potential nominee facing trial in an election year is unprecedented. The New York Times/Siena College poll reveals that around 6% of voters in crucial swing states would switch their votes from Trump to Biden if Trump were to be convicted and sentenced. Given the narrow margins in these states in 2020 and expectations of a closely contested race in 2024, such a shift could determine the outcome of the election.
Trump takes the witness stand
The biggest test of Trump's strategy to turn his legal challenges into electoral advantages will play out in a New York courtroom on Monday. Americans are not accustomed to seeing their former leaders testify under oath. This scenario is more common in fragile developing countries than in the world's most powerful democracy. Although this is a civil trial, Trump, along with his adult sons and the Trump Organization, has been accused of "persistent and repeated" fraud by the judge. The New York Attorney General, Letitia James, is seeking $250 million in damages and a ban on Trump conducting business in the state where he built his brand.
While the trial is not televised, Trump is known for turning his court appearances into dramatic events with his public rants about unfairness and sharp criticisms of James, the judge, and courtroom staff. These actions have raised concerns about their safety. Trump is attempting to undermine the credibility of the judicial system holding him accountable, portraying him as a continuing threat to America's democratic processes. Testifying under oath is a challenge for an ex-president known for making false claims. The law offers less immunity than he enjoys while making false statements on the campaign trail. However, Trump is also defending his business, legacy, and his family's future.
Trump's defense in his various criminal cases has evolved into a campaign strategy built on his repeated and unfounded claims of election fraud in 2020. The former president faces a federal trial in Washington beginning in March due to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election. He and his associates have also been indicted in Fulton County, Georgia, on racketeering charges related to the election. Trump has been indicted by special counsel Jack Smith for mishandling classified documents kept at his Florida resort after leaving office. Additionally, he faces a trial related to a hush-money payment to an adult-film star.
However, Trump argues that all these legal challenges are part of a broader effort to interfere with the 2024 election. He warned in a fundraising email that if Biden and the Democrats win, "This will go on forever and ever – and America will NEVER have a genuine election again."
Biden's declining political standing
Considering the potential conviction facing the likely Republican presidential nominee, Biden, who served a single term marked by a second impeachment, should be questioning why the 2024 race is even close.
The poll by The New York Times and Siena College suggests that Trump has gained an advantage over Biden on issues such as the economy, immigration, national security, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Biden, on the other hand, is trusted more on abortion, which could be a driving factor for Democratic turnout and a challenge for the GOP in 2024.
In Nevada, a state narrowly won by Biden in 2020, Trump leads 52% to Biden's 41%. Trump is also leading in Georgia, a state where he is facing racketeering charges, with 49% to Biden's 43%. Trump has a 49% to 44% lead in Arizona, another pivotal state. In Michigan, which Trump won in 2016 and Biden in 2020, the Republican is ahead by 5 points.
The poll reveals that Biden's support among Black and Hispanic voters is weakening. Moreover, 71% of those polled believe he is too old to be an effective president, while only 39% say the same of Trump,
who is 77 years old.
The Biden campaign has downplayed the significance of polls a year before the election and remains confident in their "winning, popular agenda." They believe it will prevail over the "unpopular extremism" of "MAGA Republicans." However, there are clear signs of anxiety among Democrats.
In addition to Senator Richard Blumenthal's concerns, Rep. Pramila Jayapal, chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, pointed out that Biden's staunch support for Israel, particularly in the wake of its actions in Gaza following Hamas attacks, is causing issues. She expressed her belief that this is the first time she has felt that Biden's re-election prospects are in jeopardy, as Muslim Americans, Arab Americans, and young people perceive this conflict as a moral crisis.
In conclusion, the 2024 election is shaping up to be a highly competitive and unpredictable contest, with Trump facing legal challenges and Biden grappling with declining approval ratings. As the election draws closer, many unknown factors and events could influence the outcome, making it a critical moment in American politics.
